Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 0.200274 0.240302 0.288222 0.350412 0.429852 0.529112 0.664411
2025-06-01 0.146604 0.191845 0.252276 0.340811 0.470546 0.659251 0.965439
2025-06-08 0.112683 0.158380 0.225310 0.334360 0.515592 0.820830 1.413280
2025-06-15 0.090217 0.135073 0.206453 0.334895 0.576215 1.048569 2.164124
2025-06-22 0.073570 0.116483 0.190067 0.335312 0.642701 1.344207 3.398981
2025-06-29 0.058682 0.097223 0.167506 0.317571 0.670308 1.598326 4.968220
2025-07-06 0.042694 0.072590 0.129080 0.255417 0.571916 1.482773 5.303648
2025-07-13 0.036263 0.064071 0.119489 0.252540 0.620983 1.848987 8.479784
2025-07-20 0.032039 0.058851 0.115282 0.261248 0.712016 2.489831 15.696116
2025-07-27 0.028872 0.055070 0.113243 0.275460 0.836933 3.506192 33.062670
2025-08-03 0.025902 0.051077 0.109723 0.284923 0.960855 4.843482 73.364920
2025-08-10 0.022695 0.045919 0.102081 0.279339 1.027208 6.095418 149.762451
2025-08-17 0.019508 0.040411 0.092735 0.266639 1.066753 7.488551 329.516236
2025-08-24 0.017507 0.037299 0.088957 0.271934 1.211957 10.707185 1272.293889
2025-08-31 0.015795 0.034554 0.085495 0.277437 1.379329 15.675284 8495.207231
2025-09-07 0.014421 0.032387 0.083147 0.286888 1.602938 24.422199 295498.783757
2025-09-14 0.013189 0.030344 0.080637 0.295007 1.850909 38.838266 NaN
2025-09-21 0.011773 0.027543 0.074987 0.286056 1.955259 53.109707 NaN
2025-09-28 0.009753 0.022785 0.061903 0.235287 1.596150 42.346185 NaN
2025-10-05 0.008952 0.021288 0.059356 0.236091 1.762376 63.835074 NaN
2025-10-12 0.008413 0.020433 0.058772 0.247100 2.081795 116.942178 NaN
2025-10-19 0.007990 0.019837 0.058952 0.263053 2.537319 250.793486 NaN
2025-10-26 0.007536 0.019067 0.058307 0.274343 3.000783 549.855139 NaN